The recent explosion of interest in AI was triggered almost entirely by the public release of ChatGPT. While industry insiders had been excited about this for a while, not much detail was known about it until its public release in November 2022. That all changed as soon as regular users got hold of it, and the hype has pretty consistently been building since then, but is it something to be worried about?
To answer that question, we need to break down a few concepts. Firstly, what is AI? Unfortunately, it’s a term that has many meanings to many people, and changes with context. Broadly speaking though, I like to think of AI as any code that is designed to creatively solve problems. Is a calculator AI? I’d say not, and that’s because it’s missing any kind of creative element. Is a search engine AI? Probably, at least in some situations – if the search engine just provides a list of links based on a basic index, then maybe not. But if a search engine looks through user behaviour and produces an optimised list that has taken account of this behaviour then that would be AI to me. Finally, what about ChatGPT? Absolutely – ChatGPT is pretty much a textbook definition of AI.
So we can think about what is and isn’t AI, but that’s not the whole picture. When people think of AI from science fiction books and movies, they typically think of a (usually malevolent) sentient, artificial being – sometimes in a synthetic body (e.g. a Terminator), sometimes just running within a computer system (e.g. HAL from 2001 A Space Odyssey). Is that the same as ChatGPT? Thankfully not. ChatGPT is a form of AI known as ‘generative AI’, whereas HAL/Skynet et al are ‘artificial general intelligence’ (AGI). What’s the difference? Well, pretty much everything.
Generative AI is designed to do one thing really well – generate content. Whether it’s text-based, image-based or video-based, generative AI takes existing content (loads and loads of it), and looks for patterns in that content, and attempts to reproduce them. For example, if you tell a generative AI model (known as ‘training’) to look at 100,000,000 photos of a fox, it will start to ‘learn’ that a fox usually has a bushy tail, two eyes and red/orange fur. Eventually, it will have learned so much about images of foxes that it can attempt to create its own – the more learning its done, the better the end result will be (on average).
This is different to AGI. An AGI model attempts to replicate the general knowledge and abilities of a human mind, as opposed to just one thing, and this is the real trick that we’ve yet to master. We can create AI that is able to beat the best chess players in the world, and we can create realistic-looking fake videos of politicians doing silly things, but if you asked ChatGPT to operate custom-built hardware in a car factory it wouldn’t even know where to begin. AGI would, in theory, be capable of learning from any situation, and would have a human-like ability to apply knowledge to areas it has no direct experience in.
When people talk about the dangers of AI, what they are typically referring to is the existential threat of AGI – if we succeed in creating AGI on a level that is above our own intelligence, what happens if that AGI decides to be antagonistic towards humans? If AGI becomes widespread enough and self-sustaining, would we even be able to stop it?
These are the big questions, but fortunately for now they appear to be a long way off. ChatGPT and other generative similar AI models have opened people’s eyes to the possibilities of generative AI, but thankfully we are likely a long way off true AGI (though some people in the industry claim its only a couple of years away). However, we have seen such rapid progress in AI recently that we do need to start having some difficult conversations, as ultimately (as long as we don’t wipe ourselves out in the meantime) it’s inevitable that we will eventually create AI models that surpass the capabilities of the human mind in every way.
The biggest question for me, is what happens when we create an AI model designed solely to convince us that it’s a real conscious being – would we ever be able to tell that apart from a genuinely conscious being, and if not, how do we know it’s not real?